Will the crypto king’s technical rebound end faster than expected? – While Bitcoin (BTC) seemed on track to continue the bullish correction of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021, it is struggling to step over a strategic resistance around $26,000. And in a week that has been marked by geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the king of cryptos has not been able to fare well. And this unlike gold which usually behaves well on this type of risk.
Moreover, we will also note a divergence from the US equity indices (Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite) which were clearly positive this week. One wonders if Bitcoin has lost the common thread of its technical rebound from the $20,000 support. To make matters worse, the Fed’s monetary tightening would be more likely to last due to the good US employment figures published on Friday. This would accentuate the shortage of dollars in circulation to the detriment of the most volatile risky asset classes, and more particularly cryptocurrencies.
Finally, graphically speaking, the latest technical analyzes do not show a desire to significantly correct the last downward wave of last spring. To the point that a sharp brake under the resistance of $ 26,000 could spoil the relative improvement in BTC prices since mid-June.
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Bitcoin in Weekly Units – A Slow Start to August
The weekly doji being formed, would signal us that the bullish momentum of the previous two bullish candles might end. Buyers would hesitate to press the accelerator pedal, while sellers who arrived late would have already weakened. Apart from a better weekend, this technical signal would not be timely. Especially since this happened at a time when the technical rebound of the American equity indices and gold were still affirmed.
Seeing BTC prices stall below the Tenkan, not far from the $26,000 resistance, would be a liability to continuing its bear run break since its last ATH in November 2021. The longer this technical signal dragged on, the worse the relapse would be. It will be recalled that in any case, investors cannot sleep peacefully on their two ears insofar as the prices of the king of cryptos and the Chikou Span always remain below the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud). And this, regardless of whether or not we break the resistance of $ 26,000.
The other point of vigilance concerns the evolution of the Kijun under the cloud. For analysis, it has been stagnating below the $35,000 resistance since the week of June 27th. Nevertheless, a bearish synchronization with the Tenkan would wreak havoc that many investors would like to do without. On the one hand, it would probably compromise the technical rebound since mid-June. And on the other hand, it would potentially cause a new massive dump in an atmosphere of capitulation. Hence the hypothesis of threatening the famous $20,000 with conviction.
Bitcoin in daily units – The end of seven consecutive days of declines and prices still inside the Kumo
Maybe you didn’t notice it at first sight. But Bitcoin could end its bad streak of seven consecutive days of decline. Although there is no danger in the house, it is a fact to be taken into account in the continuity or not of the technical rebound since mid-June. At the time of writing, Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency has preserved the essentials: prices above the $22,000 triple bottom support and inside the Kumo. This would make it possible to maintain the scenario of the reconquest of $26,000. On the sine qua non condition that Friday’s bullish candle is followed by one or two others of the same ilk.
And if it were to go idyllic, then BTC prices could go back slightly above Kumo in daily units. But at the same time, the Chikou Span could come up against the lower limit of the cloud, the Senkou Span A (SSA).
In order to neutralize the short-term trend in daily units, the final crossing of the cloud would be necessary to consider a hypothetical return towards the resistance of $30,000. With a Chikou Span that would be inside the Kumo. In contrast, the technical rebound extension would not make up half of the losses of the last bearish wave from the failure below the $46,000 resistance. Like what investors in cryptocurrencies could still suffer throughout the year 2022.
The alert below the $26,000 resistance that I mentioned last week is temporarily taking effect as we speak. Lest we see the end of Bitcoin’s technical rebound, this level must be crossed. The faster this favorable technical signal occurs, the more the capitulation so dreaded by many investors will be postponed until later. What to offer a summer respite on cryptocurrencies after their murderous spring.
However, a real favorable trend reversal would not be necessary. Not only, we have with reminders forces like the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) and the worrying trajectory of the future Kumo in weekly units. But a crossing of the downward line of the bear run could be a sham, if the current uncertainties on the financial markets were to regain ground. Thus, to hope for a truly favorable outcome on the graphic level, it would be necessary to send heavy by favorably threatening the price zone around $41,000-46,000. And it is clear that we are far from the mark.
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